Florence Faces a Curious Contrast: Growth in Housing but Decline in School Enrollment
Welcome to the vibrant city of Florence, where development seems to be on the rise! As we see new housing units pop up and major manufacturers setting up shop, it might surprise many to learn that the local school district is anticipating a downward trend in enrollment. With nearly 4,500 new housing units permitted since 2018 and the unveiling of AESC’s massive battery plant, which is projected to create 2,700 jobs, one would think that school enrollment would follow suit. However, recent projections tell a different story.
A Closer Look at Enrollment Numbers
The latest demographic study commissioned by the Florence 1 Schools has taken a mathematical approach to understand this puzzling scenario. Conducted by Cropper GIS Consulting, the 97-page report paints a detailed picture of expected enrollment and population trends over the next decade. According to the study, total enrollment within the district is projected to decline by nearly 600 students before 2028. The figures are striking; the school district won’t hit last year’s enrollment of 15,910 again until 2032, and even then, it will only exceed that number by a measly three students.
Who is Affected?
Interestingly, the decline in enrollment is attributed to an aging population rather than a lack of growth. Around 70 percent of households in the district currently do not have children in school, revealing a demographic shift as families age and their children graduate. With fewer younger families moving in with school-age children, the school-age population is witnessing a decline despite the overall population growth in the area.
Some Schools Flourish as Others Feel the Strain
While the district overall is bracing for a decrease, some individual schools are indeed expected to thrive! Lucy T. Davis Elementary School, for example, is anticipated to see a whopping 49.7 percent increase in enrollment by 2033, largely fueled by the proposed housing developments in the area. In a similar vein, Henry Timrod Elementary School is projected to rise by 46.9 percent. Both of these increases are tied to the housing developments planned nearby, signalling a bright future for their student bodies.
Planning for the Future
Superintendent Richard O’Malley has expressed confidence in the district’s ability to adapt. “We have sat here month after month and watched the growth around town,” he noted. With over 16 proposed housing projects in Lucy T. Davis’s zone and 10 projects near Henry Timrod, the future certainly looks promising for these elementary schools. However, he also acknowledges that as elementary students progress through grades, middle and high school enrollment will face declines until around 2027 and 2030, respectively.
What’s Next for Florence Schools?
Although O’Malley’s outlook remains optimistic, concerns about potential overcrowding in schools are still on the table. Luckily, with proper planning, the district can make necessary adjustments, such as building expansions if the need arises. Currently, Savannah Grove Elementary is the last school in the district’s building plan, boasting a modest 3.2 percent projected increase by 2033.
Conclusion
Florence is undeniably on the map, with new developments and job opportunities emerging at every turn. However, navigating the tricky waters of school enrollment amid this growth may require a thoughtful approach. The balance between newly constructed homes and the rapidly aging population serves as a reminder that growth can present complex challenges in education. As we keep an eye on this dynamic situation, it’s essential for the community to support one another and prioritize the educational needs of its children.
